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Holiday shoppers are waiting to part with their money, leaving retailers disappointed with sales over the last few weeks but hopeful about this last week before the post-Christmas markdowns and returns begin.
The International Council of Shopping Centers called November sales "dismal" and a 1.2 percent rise in sales for the week that ended Dec. 11 "a partial snapback after a sizable back-to-back decline during the prior two weeks."
The council, which still predicts about 3 percent growth over last year in holiday sales at chain stores, is counting on a "late surge in customer traffic."
However, the council's holiday shopping survey found increasing pessimism among consumers, with 39 percent reporting that their willingness or ability to spend on gifts had decreased over the last month. Seventy percent of those shoppers blamed increased concern about their personal finances.
The National Retail Federation, which looks at a larger sample of retailers, found 4.7 percent growth in November sales, spokeswoman Ellen Tolley said.
The federation is holding firm in its projection of 4.5 percent growth in overall holiday sales this year. That would equal $ 220 billion in spending.
Consumers had completed, on average, 46 percent of their holiday shopping by Dec. 14, according to the federation's Holiday Consumer Intentions and Action Survey. By the same time last year, they had completed 52 percent of their shopping, and that was after two snowstorms.
The survey also found that 21 million men and 16 million women had not even started their holiday shopping by last week.
"We're working on it. I'm about two-thirds done," Harrisburg Mall shopper Kellie Peterson of Enhaut said last week.
As a stay-at-home mother with two kids, "it's a lot harder financially for us to do what we want to do this year," she said.
Midstate merchants generally reported brisk business on the day after Thanksgiving, followed by two weeks of slower sales. They offered several reasons why shoppers may be dragging their feet.
Shoppers may feel less urgency because this year "there's a little longer calendar between Thanksgiving and Christmas," noted Ken Lakin, CEO and chairman of the Boscov's department store chain.
They have two more shopping days than last year and the most since 2001.
Lakin predicts this will be an "OK Christmas, but not a great one" for retailers.
In the last few years, people have shopped "closer to need," observed Mary Kerr, spokeswoman for The Bon-Ton department store chain. The Bon-Ton reported that November sales were up 5.4 percent at stores open for at least a year.
The Bon-Ton this year stocked up on some special merchandise for the holidays, such as $ 99 DVD players, remote-control toy cars and animal-shaped rocking chairs for children, according to Kerr.
"You really have to draw them in with some strong items," she said.
The weather is another variable in the shopping equation. Cold weather tends to put people into the Christmas-spending mood, but until last week the weather was relatively mild.
The arrival of a cold front may provide stores with "a little help from Mother Nature," especially in the outerwear departments, Kerr suggested.
Wintry weather cuts both ways, though. By this time last year, the stores had been emptied twice by snowstorms.
"We want cold and we want snow, but we don't want it laying on the ground to deter people," said Jerry Crites, general manager of Colonial Park Mall in Lower Paxton Twp.
It's hard to compare holiday sales at Harrisburg Mall, which had only one anchor store open last Christmas. In the ensuing year, the mall underwent renovations and a new Boscov's and Bass Pro Shops Outdoor World have opened.
About 50,000 people visited the mall the day after Thanksgiving, according to Mark Nobile, the mall's general manager.
"We're getting so much more traffic. We're thrilled with the turnout," Nobile said. "It's very nice to see just steady flow through the mall."
So far, the Blue Mountain Vineyards store in the mall hasn't seen much of a holiday rush, but "the people who are purchasing are purchasing more wine than they did in the past," manager Leo Cenimo said.
"We're seeing an increase in traffic," said Marty Stuckey, manager of Snowden's Hallmark store in the mall. "It's an increase over last year. I'm expecting next week that we're going to be really swamped."
The 500 $ 20 gift certificates given away on Dec. 1 as a way to thank shoppers for sticking with the mall prompted long lines, Nobile said.
By Dec. 6, more than 30 percent of the mall-wide gift certificates had been redeemed, mall spokeswoman Shannon Wess said.
Some shoppers may just be engaging in what John Walters, manager of Capital City Mall in Lower Allen Twp., calls "negotiating without speaking." That is, they're hoping for last-minute bargains.
Harrisburg Mall shopper Jermaine Crosson of Penbrook was only halfway through his shopping list last week.
"I'm a late shopper. You find a lot of deals later," Crosson said.
Each week this month department stores have advertised sales and offered coupons.
"It's something that we have to do," Bon-Ton's Kerr said. "In order to get your market share you have to be aggressive promoting and getting your share of the traffic."
Shoppers who wait too long risk disappointment. They may find their choice of color or size isn't there, Walters warned.
Retailers have gotten better at inventory control in recent years, Boscov's Lakin noted.
"There aren't a lot of goof-ups and extra lots of merchandise," he said. "Shop sooner rather than later because supplies aren't going to be quite what they were. And the deals are there now."
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